There are debates in lots of sports about the “right way” to play whatever game it is. The core of these debates is whether it’s better to play “ugly,” focusing on defense and ensuring the opposition doesn’t score points, or to play “pretty” free-flowing offense that scores a lot of points.

This is obviously an overly simplistic dichotomy, as some teams can do both, or at least can do one well and the other well enough. Think back to Bob Lilley’s last championship at Rochester. The Rhinos were unwatchable that season but had an absolutely historic defense, allowing just 15 goals in 28 games, just over half a goal per game. They played just enough offense to get three points, but the focal point of those teams was keeping the other team from scoring. Louisville City scored 15 more goals than the Rhinos that season, but gave up 34 and finished a distant second place in the conference.

In contrast, the 2016 champion New York Red Bulls II could just bang in goals at will, scoring 60 on the season, about two per game. It helped that they had very good defense, too – they only gave up 21 goals in 30 games, tops in the league. In 2017, Louisville City gave up 31 goals in 32 games, second in the conference only to Rochester, who surrendered 28. Last season, City gave up 38 goals in 34 matches, third in the conference behind Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.

Historically, there’s a very strong correlation between goals against and playoff spots. In soccer, you statistically have a better chance at winning or at least gaining points if you keep the opposition out of your net. That fact belies the wistful “without the ball, you cannot win” quote from Johann Cruyff, but it’s borne out by statistics in leagues all over the world. In 2018, seven of the eight Eastern Conference playoff teams were in the top eight in goal difference. Same in 2016, 2014, and so on. The top four defenses nearly always make the playoffs.

Defense is how you win the league, if not championships. It’s not pretty most of the time. I’m an aesthete at heart and I like to watch pretty soccer. I’d rather win 3-2 than 1-0 any day. But the truth is that effective teams defend well first and figure out scoring second. Something to think about.