I must say, this was a pleasantly surprising result. It’s not that I didn’t think Louisville City could win this match. It’s that I didn’t think they’d come out of the gates and score three open play goals in the opening half, two within a half hour of kickoff.
The stats from this game are a little misleading. Once City was sitting on a pretty comfortable lead and had bracketed Tyler Pasher so he was almost a nullity, they were content to let Indy pass the ball around a million times without actually scoring. Indy won the possession battle about 60-40 and attempted over 550 passes, but the damage was already done. XI took four shots on target in the first half (one of which was Pasher’s penalty), most of those coming in the closing minutes of the half. In spite of all of their second-half possession, Indy only had one shot on target in the second half from Drew Conner at about the 57′ mark.
Indy pounded in 29 crosses in the match but only connected on seven of them. City had 18 clearances and 27 tackles to Indy’s seven, which just illustrates how solid the defending was overall. Indy obviously wasn’t totally bottled up, as they had lots of the ball in the second half for long stretches. However, it’s really nice to see Louisville City manage the game with a lead and not concede (aside from that penalty). Indy is starting to look a little toothless of late in attack, and we can expect some tactical changes in the final episode of this season’s LIPAFC slate. However, City’s taken seven of the available nine points so far, which secures an overall season series victory for Morados for the third year running.
There are five games left in the season: two against St. Louis, one against Indy, SKC II, and Memphis. That’s fifteen available points. City need 14 to secure a no-doubt first place spot in Group E, which is a lot. Nine or ten points probably does the job, realistically. There’s no telling whether Indy will get back on track in their remaining matches. Every game matters in this group, and City really need to get back to even accounting with St. Louis on Saturday to create some real separation for playoff chances.
FiveThirtyEight gives Morados an 83% chance of making the playoffs, which seems a little high to me given how play has gone in Group E so far. SportsClubStats agrees, however, with the same number. Winning the next two matches would probably seal things up from a playoffs perspective. However, it’s also wise to expect a few bumps in the road here and there. St. Louis is still playing well. City haven’t managed to open them up yet this season. Saturday sounds like a good time to change that narrative. VAMOS!
