WHO:

New York Red Bulls II, 5th seed, Eastern Conference

WHAT:

The USL Cup Eastern Conference Final

WHEN:

Friday, November 2, 2018, 7:30 p.m.

WHERE:

Louisville Slugger Field, 401 E. Main Street, Louisville, KY 40202

WATCH:

AT THE GAME. You’re out of excuses. Just don’t go home from work, head straight to the stadium. Get good and warmed up, because we’re going to need to yell and sing for at least 90 minutes, and perhaps more if history is any kind of guidepost for this game. But if you can’t make it because you’re dealing with the blowback from your dachshund suddenly becoming a munitions expert, then you want watch on TV on WBKI 58, listen on the radio on 790 WKRD, and stream it on ESPN+.

JOIN US IN THE MARCH TO THE MATCH!

WHO, AGAIN?

It’s our good Eastern Conference Finals buddies, the Baby Bulls. Some quick counting stats on RBNY2’s 2018, including the playoffs, compared to LouCity’s:

These numbers don’t actually tell us very much, other than Red Bulls are very trigger happy and a bit of a shambles in defense. BUT, when looking at postseason stats, are things very different over the much smaller two game sample size?

Kinda. New York’s been the road team in both of their matches so far. They haven’t really looked to possess the ball. Instead, they’ve essentially tried to stop the ball and get turnovers in midfield or higher and capitalize on a defense that is still in transition. And it’s worked twice.

From a stylistic perspective, Red Bulls kind of play very similar to Morados, in that they like a high press that leads to easier scoring opportunities. They play a 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 which we’re very familiar with. They’re constantly trying to get the ball to Zone 14, the area of the field between the center circle and the D on top of the 18 yard box. Statistics have shown for a long time now that most successful goal chances come out of that area, and so that’s what Red Bulls focus on.

Personnel-wise, they’ve started the same roster the past two games:

GK: Evan Louro; CB: Hassan Ndam, Kevin Politz: FB: Ethan Kutler, Allen Yanes; MID: Andrew Tinary, Chris Lema, Jared Stroud, Jose Aguinaga, Amando Moreno; F: Tom Barlow

Barlow, supposedly 6’2″, 185, doesn’t really score a lot for a center forward and functions more as a hold-up player to get the ball to leading goalscorer Moreno or Stroud. He didn’t record a single shot in the Cincinnati game, though he scored early against Charleston in the first round. Andrew Tinari is the team’s leading chance creator, and he and Moreno will be what keeps me on edge all night.

One place where Morados might find some weakness is the New York centerbacks. Yes, they’re super big and physical, and poor Cam Lancaster might have to sleep in a freezer after this game for all the bruising he’s going to take. BUT, they’re not very good passers. That might be because they just try and hit long balls which are naturally low percentage plays, but Ndam, who might be in MLS this time next year, only completed a third of his passes against FCC. He also had eight clearances and four interceptions, so he can move for a bigger guy, but if he’s turnover prone, that might be where City makes their bread here.

This game is setting up to be a battle of the midfield, which makes me a little worried about Paolo playing by himself in defense. If Louisville City has the ball, that’s fine, but the Red Bulls midfielders are quick with the ball and certainly not above embellishing to get a free kick. Mental fortitude is also going to have to be a calling card for Morados for that reason alone, to say nothing of the fact that the Baby Bulls are very good even without all the gamesmanship.

I’m excited and optimistic, but this is going to be a very tough game. Let’s go get it.

VAMOS MORADOS, VAMOS A GANAR!