WHO: Tampa Bay Rowdies, Group G winner

WHAT: The USL Playoffs Eastern Conference Final

WHEN: Saturday, October 24, 2020, 7:30 p.m.

WHERE: Lynn Family Stadium

WATCH: Pretty sure this game’s sold out. Watch it on WBKI, stream on ESPN+, and listen on 790 WKRD

MARCH: Kentucky’s in the red from COVID-19, so don’t

WHO, AGAIN? Louisville City hasn’t faced Tampa Bay since last year’s playoffs in what turned out to be the last home game ever played at Slugger Field. This year, the Rowdies played in a group that could best be described as “meh,” featuring a bad ATL Twonited, a surprisingly bad The Miami FC, and a pretty good Charleston Battery team. Their out-of-conference slate included the worst NYRBII team we’ve seen (0-1 win for TBR), an underwhelming North Carolina (2-2 draw at Lang), Union 2, and an away draw at Birmingham. Not exactly murderer’s row.

It’s not Tampa Bay Rowdies’ fault their schedule sucked, but there’s little debate that Louisville City is the best team they’ll have faced all season. The Rowdies used that schedule to score 30 goals, 25 of which were inside the box. They converted 18% of their shots, and put about 40% of their shots on target away. That’s pretty good. Defensively, they give up less than a goal per game, also good, but maybe less so in light of their strength of schedule.

Sebastian Guenzatti is the club’s leading scorer, and wingback Lewis Hilton its leading chance creator. Juan Tejada is the second striker up top with Guenzatti. It will be interesting to see how Louisville City tactically adjusts to having to track two forwards, assuming they both stay high on the field. Tampa tends to play 3-5-2, so they want to generate offense in wide areas in contrast to City’s last two opponents. Forrest Lasso anchors the back line. If Hilton and Malik Johnson play on the wings, City’s back four might have their hands full trying to man-mark four guys. It might be to Hackworth’s benefit to try and play through the midfield instead. Or not. I’m not a scientist.

This might not be the most battle-tested Rowdies team we’ve seen of late, but they’re still good. They like to keep the ball, they create a lot of chances, and score a good number of goals. Evan Louro is a good goalkeeper. They have some very good bench options, including Lucky Mkosana. This is the kind of team that Louisville City would probably like to play more often, as it lends itself to a more open style. Possession is going to matter a bit more in a game like this, so the midfield battles will be really interesting: who can use the space most effectively?

I’m excited for this match. It’s City’s sixth straight conference final, and a chance to go to its fourth straight league final. We can trust Morados will be prepared. Let’s all do the same.

VAMOS MORADOS!